A year ago, I wrote this article on how podcasting will shape the coaching profession. I can’t really tell if any of them came true, but hey, a futurist typically isn’t around to see most of their predictions come to light anyways, right?
So, what are my predictions for 2007 in podcasting? Here are just a few:
- The fight to change podcast to another name will finally be put to rest.
- A global body of podcasting professionals will take shape to help develop standards and become an influential voice in all things that affect podcasters.
- One company will develop a tool that will make podcasting so easy to understand and produce that the number of podcasts will explode.
- Mobile podcasting will grow so much that it will cause many to abandon iTunes as the podcast directory of choice.
- An influential podcaster will call it quits due to burn-out and lack of funding.
- One radio or TV station will build a podcasting conglomerate online.
Agree, disagree with any above? And, what are your podcasting predictions for 2007?
Technorati: futurist, technology
Leesa, These are some good predictions, but here are a few of my comments about them.
The fight to change podcast to another name will finally be put to rest.
1) I believe that in the long-term the name “podcast” will be used to describe a type of portable digital media content and will be mostly associated with the iPod. As we move towards other alternative ways of getting and consuming these digital media files like mobile phones, ultra portable pc’s, settop HD IPTV type boxes like TIVO the term podcast will become less and less important. Ultimatly these are all just audio and videos. Having a special term like podcast will not be needed and the reality is that still today a very small percentage of people actually know of the term podcast.
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A global body of podcasting professionals will take shape to help develop standards and become an influential voice in all things that affect podcasters.
2) I am not really sure we really need such an organization. These types of organizations have limited benefit to anyone and is mostly a power trip for the people leading the organization. Many other media organizations already exist that can fill most of this role.
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One company will develop a tool that will make podcasting so easy to understand and produce that the number of podcasts will explode.
3) While this would be good and I agree that online podcasting support firms and directories will get better and better. I think the real ground breaking will come from recording tools getting better, cheaper and easier to use. Portable device technology will drive the explosion and better publishing and distribution technologies will drive continued growth. I don’t think we will ever see another explosion of content production. We have already been through most of that phase already. We are in the quality and context phase now. Online recording and production of podcasts is not the long-term answer.
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Mobile podcasting will grow so much that it will cause many to abandon iTunes as the podcast directory of choice.
4) I agree with Scott Bourne that iTunes and the iPod are not going away anytime soon. But, I do think that mobile smartphones with 3G, 3.5G, Wimax, bluetooth and in-car internet connected digital radios will drive massive growth of on-demand audio and video/podcast listening and viewing in the future. I work for Melodeo Mobilcast and see these trends first hand.
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An influential podcaster will call it quits due to burn-out and lack of funding.
5) I can see this happening to many of us as our work becomes more about the business side of podcasting. I have slowed from podcasting because I have been working to build mobile phone podcast listening. My Show WebTalk Radio was one of the very first podcasts online. I started it in 1999.
I can see Adam Curry eventually stopping his podcasting and you never know if Leo’s network grows so big that he needs to just manage all of it. He just may not have time to podcast anymore.
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One radio or TV station will build a podcasting conglomerate online.
6) I think we are already see a lot of this with NPR, Clear Channel, KCRW and KEXP.
Rob Greenlee
http://www.melodeo.com
Hi Leesa. Nice list. Here are my thoughts.
1) My pal Leo wasn’t leading a war – more of a reaction to what he perceived was a threat. You may be right about it ending – whatever you call it.
2) There are some of us working on that and however it shapes up, I hope you’re right. We need a professional organization.
3) I really hope that this one is right for reasons I can’t disclose right now.
4) I am sorry Leesa. You’re smart as a whip, but even smart people can be wrong. Betting against iTunes is not a good idea, and I while I hope I am wrong about mobile phones, I just don’t see them as a first choice podcatcher.
5) Probably right – sad, but probably right.
6) Already happening.
I’ll share mine this week over at PodcastingTricks.com.
I believe that someone will specify a combined podcatcher/player that is smart enough to listen for updates over WiFi or 3G telephony in addition to accepting updates through cable. It will come in several flavours, from Flash-sized to 60 gig storage capacities. As it evolves, this podcatcher/player will cut into iPod market share.
All I know is, if Leesa is predicting it, I listen. And especially when it comes to forming a body of podcasting professionals, I’m in. I think we’re about twenty minutes away from the corporate world adopting podcasting as part of their status quo marketing arsenal and if old-school ‘casters (pod/vid) don’t set standards, somebody else will who may or may not be sensitive to the philosophy of the community.
Either way, great stuff, Leesa, and thanks!
John C. Havens
podcasting.about.com