In his book called The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements, Eric Hoffer talks about how movements are birthed and how they amass supporters¹.

After reading it, I began to understand why Mussolini, Hitler, Trump, and others like them rise to power…

Hatred, imitation, persuasion, coercion, suspicion, and a call to action are factors that unify people in an emerging movement.

Make no mistake – Donald Trump is an elite. He’s the very thing that his supporters felt was ruining their chance at financial success. Yet, Trump was able to put his perceived wealth on the back burner by using the unifying agents above to fire up a disenfranchised and angry base.

And that was Trump’s secret sauce; speaking to a shared identity…

I made the wrong prediction regarding the 2016 United States presidential election. I followed polls instead of historical patterns.

I won’t ever make that mistake again…

Because the big fat clue that I ignored was that Trump spoke to the shared identity of the new poor.

Hoffer writes about this cohort in his book. He states that when people lose their privilege (it can be economic, racial, social, etc.) in a society, their frustrations grow. They hate their new position of struggle and long for the days of affluence and dominance. Hoffer states:

Not all who are poor are frustrated. It is usually those whose poverty is relatively recent, the ‘new poor’ who throb with the ferment of frustration. The memory of better things is as fire in their veins.”

And Trump spoke about these better days using simple, clear words.

The new poor is the reason Nazism rose in Germany in the 1930s…

Adolf Hitler‘s rise is fascinating. He was born into poverty. He had an acrimonial relationship with his father. His mother died of breast cancer when he was 18. And it was around this time that his Antisemitism grew.

At the end of World War I, Germany had to agree to many concessions. This angered Hitler. He felt that Germany was being punished. Most Germans felt the same way.

In the 1920s, Hitler entered politics. He was especially adept at speaking to large crowds, blaming Jews and Marxist supporters for the current economic and social hardship Germans were experiencing.

Hitler challenged the current leadership of German’s political party, National Socialist German Workers Party. Through a vote, Hitler became its sole leader.

Hitler was finally able to make headway after the stock market crashed in 1929. It was a devastating financial setback to hit Germany and the “new poor” were now in a vulnerable position.

Hitler used xenophobic language to identify the villains in the “new poor’s” narrative…

The villains in Hitler’s story were Jews, Marxist socialists, and anyone who wasn’t a white German. Through his speeches, Hitler was able to take Germans back to a time when they were prosperous and proud. Hitler spoke to the frustrations of the “new poor” and offered them a future that would return them to their lofty positions.

Trump’s presidential win is a historical pattern repeating itself…

Some historians believe that history is linear; others believe history is circular. As a historian and also a futurist, I believe both to be true. And if history is any teacher, what has happened before will happen again.

If history is any lesson, Trump will do what he can to give himself more powers over the next four years. And it will be easy for him to do so because for the first time in 80-years, the Republicans control the White House, the House, and the Senate.

The obstructionism that plagued Barack Obama will not be an issue for Trump…

Like Hitler, Trump will have immense power to push through changes to laws that will suit his interests.

Trump will serve two terms and during his eight years as president, his actions will trigger a war. Humans in general, and American in particular, will suffer under Trump’s policies. The most unqualified person to hold the highest job in the world now commands one of the mightiest armies on the planet.

And a voters’ remorse will set in, just like it did for the Brexit vote. Trump will show that it’s not conservative ideals that he wishes to uphold while in office; it’s his desire to be the topic of everyone’s conversation.

So, is it all doom and gloom for Americans?

Short answer – no.

My optimism bias sees a glimmer of light that will glow brighter well before the end of Trump’s presidency.

I still believe that Millennials will be the ones to demand changes so a Trump never happens in America ever again. Boomers will be too old and Gen Xers can’t do it alone because they’re super optimistic (I’m a Gen Xer so I know).

Gen Xers will need Millennials’ realism while Millennials will need the optimism and wisdom of Gen Xers. Together, these cohorts will bring about lasting change.

There’s a reason why a Hitler has never happened again in Germany…

And despite some of the xenophobia happening in Europe today, a rise of a neo-Hitler just can’t happen. Primarily because Germany took the steps to ensure that its citizens built up their empathy muscles through the power of reconciliation.

—

1. I first heard of Eric Hoffer’s book through an article written by Andrew Sullivan called Democracies End When They Are Too Democratic.